Dr. Fauci and two co-authors published a letter on March 26, 2020 in the New England Journal of Medicine. Fauci is the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. In the article, linked below, he states that COVID-19 may turn out to be comparable in numbers of deaths to a seasonal flu or similar to two relatively minor flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968. The regular flu has killed up to 80,000 per year in the US and kills about 500,000 globally every year.
According to current projections, Covid-19 is expected to kill about one-third as many per million as these earlier flu pandemics, cited by Fauci. Such extreme measures, as today, were not taken in the US due to these two earlier pandemics, even though relatively speaking they were three times as fatal (per million population) as Covid-19 is projected to be.
Dr. Fauci recently has estimated that up to 100,000-200,000 will die in the U.S. due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is forecasting about 72,000 deaths in the US this year from Covid-19. For comparison, seasonal flu killed 80,000 in 2018 according to the CDC, which was a very severe season.
This new estimate is much less than our hysterical media and subject-matter experts had earlier led us to believe. In the beginning of this historic, media-fueled panic, the numbers being cited implied that potentially millions would die in the US and tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, globally. Instead of a fatality rate of around 2% to 5%, as earlier, now Fauci is saying the death rate may be closer to only 0.1% of the number infected. (See excerpt of his paper below.)
Fauci explained this to his scientific colleagues that early estimates of the seriousness of the disease may have been grossly exaggerated, but he never explained this to the general American public. He just regurgitated to Congress the numbers from WHO, around 3-4%. He never provided his own opinion published in this paper. Of course, our lying, propagandist media has never reported and explained it to the public, either.
EXCERPT OF FAUCI’S PUBLISHED LETTER:
“On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.“
The U.S. has experienced a number of minor pandemics before that people do not remember very well, such as those mentioned above by Fauci, as well as, the Swine Flu and others even more forgettable. Who remembers the Sika pandemic, which I believe is still on-going? Most pandemics have not turned out to be apocalyptic events as people made this one out to be early on. The pandemic we all remember is the Spanish flu of 1918, but this is not the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu killed about 30 times as many Americans per million, as Covid now is projected to kill.
The real “uncharted waters” that we are navigating is the idea of shutting down much of our entire national economy for months at a time and living on borrowed money that we cannot afford in response to a relatively minor pandemic. Though there have been pandemics in the past, we have never done some of these things before in the U.S. and it could well lead to an economic disaster, from which it will be difficult to recover.
An economic collapse can cause many more deaths in a number of ways than a minor pandemic. Just as one prime example, suppose our enemies are tempted by our weakness and we have to fight a major war, but we are not economically prepared to do that? Fauci and other medical experts are not infallible little gods, as they are being held up to be, that we should have to follow unconditionally, without question or consideration of other factors, such as the huge impact nationwide restrictions could have on the economy and the general health and well-being of Americans.
Yet, Covid-19 can be more traumatic than the seasonal flu in some specific areas, because the larger numbers of deaths caused by the pandemic occur in very large, densely-populated cities in a short period of time, such as the tragedy currently playing out in New York or the one earlier in Milan, Italy, not to mention Wuhan. This is apparently because conditions are optimal in mega-cities for the rapid spread of the virus and there is thought to be no immunity yet to this new mutation of the Corona virus. Even though it may not be significantly more fatal than the flu, it can produce an inordinate number of deaths in one place, overwhelming the hospitals.
On the other hand, deaths due to the seasonal flu are generally more dispersed and distributed around the entire country, because the population has built up some immunity to common flu strains. So, these common flu strains do not make such a dramatic impact in certain places, locally. The seasonal flu is less likely to overwhelm the hospitals — though it does occur — and also does not make such sensational, scary news stories.
One-size-fits-all is not a rational strategy in this case. The same restrictive policies necessary in New York or Milan are probably not necessary in areas such as the much less densely populated Wyoming and South Dakota and may not be necessary in California or especially in the less urban parts of California, either. Conditions vary state-by-state and county-by-county within states. Some of the more draconian policies such as quarantining healthy people are just wrong-headed, probably anywhere.
OTHER ARTICLES BY OTHERS:
Stanford researcher says coronavirus isn’t as fatal as we thought
This post was not written by Ana Laura Palomino Garcia as stated by a website in the pingbacks below that copied parts of it.